Production and Inventory Control Technical-report writing paper

Production and Inventory Control Technical-report writing paper
Steps:
* Suppose that you are a manager of the logistics/demand management team at Publix.
Pick 2 different items.
Analyze data; find any weekly (or monthly) data pattern (randomness, seasonality, trend, etc.) and clearly
explain them. You can use graphs to show such data patterns and features.
Predict future weekly (or monthly) demands of selected items for certain time periods. All procedures
should be clearly explained.
Using the predicted demand from S3, establish the best inventory policy for each item (i.e., optimal order
quantity, optimal cycle time, etc.) under any assumption you make. Clearly explain all the procedures including model(s), assumption(s), processes, and final results.
Section structure:
Data Analysis
Forecasting
Inventory policy
* You can add any extra section if you want.
Data analysis – Daily/Weekly/Monthly Demand
Example) Monthly demand
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
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Month
Year 1
Year 2
1
740
270
2
404
280
3
454
392
4
438
354
5
510
596
6
940
726
7
782
674
8
532
490
9
442
404
10
606
710
11
546
438
12
388
392page3image29040 page3image29520 page3image30000 page3image30160 page3image30800 page3image31280 page3image31920 page3image32400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Seasonality?
Trend?
Clearly explain any data pattern(s) observed from the selected dataset.
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Predict sales volume of the selected item next year.
?
Forecasting
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Forecasting (cont.)
What is the adequate forecasting method based on data patterns/features observed from the selected dataset?
Required information:
– Daily/weekly/monthly demand
– Demand patterns
Decision:
Simple moving average
Weighted moving average Exponential smoothing Holt’s method
Seasonal decomposition Winter’s method
Output:
Future demand (weekly or monthly)
Inventory Model
Now you can establish weekly (or monthly) inventory policy in terms of (i) order quantity, (ii) cycle time, (iii) reorder level, etc.
Required information:
– Demand of selected item is estimated by the forecasting result. – All cost factors for each item are given in the Excel file.
Decision:
– Stochastic model – continuous/discrete models, lead time/stock shortage/lost sales, etc. – Deterministic model – EOQ with lead time/stock shortage/lost sales, etc.
Output:
– Optimal order quantity
– Optimal order cycle time – Optimal reorder level
Grading Criteria
Clearly explain all procedures and results. All your explanations should be numerically supported.
Remember these are not just homework questions; you need to make a report that would be used for persuading management executives to change inventory policy.
– Clear explanations
– Graphs, methodologies, solution procedures, results.

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